Archive for the 'Offshore Investing' Category

Wave 5 ending - serious correction coming

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

As predicted last time, the Dow is about to retest the November 21st lows and may even fall through the 7449 level within the next few days. We are now approaching the bottom of this stage and now we are set for a significant rebound that will have Joe Kiernan of CNBC spinning once more as he turns from survivalist back to full-fledged bull as the Dow retraces back up to its 200-day moving average of about 10,000. Then? well I believe then we will see the real drop in this secular bear market. Hold on to your hats!!

Oh yes and it seems David Bowie is now being blamed for the credit crisis because he introduced banks to the concept of securitisation of assets when he did so with his song royalties, sing along now;

“Oh No, note me, I never lost control

You’re face to face with the Man Who Sold the World”

Trade the market using ETf products. December ‘08 we made +6.7%. January ‘09 we made +10.7%. Email me for the Daily Dow Letter

Bear Market Just Beginning

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

October 2007 saw the end of an Elliott Wave Super Cycle, part 1. The full Super Cycle typically takes 80 years to play out and the second part will ‘correct’ the upward move of the first. The first started in 1932 and ended October 2007.

The corrective phase will likely take around 5 years to fully complete. This is a 5 year bear market. Since this is the first of these in 75 years, there are no specialists, no TV talking heads and no experts that have actually lived and worked through one.

Within any bear market, rallies are often sharper and bigger than any within an actual bull market.

The first of these rallies will likely start in the early part of 2009 at a level of around 6,700 or 7,400 on the Dow and will rally up to around 11,000.

After that, it is down again and likely will really take all the experts by surprise as by then they will all be talking about a revisit to 14 or 15,000.

 

Long Time No See

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

It has been a while. Here we mid-December and this is my first post of 2008. To say it has been busy would be an understatement but at least it has been positive busy; I have not been scrabbling to get everyone out of the markets at the last minute, we did have an orderly retreat starting November 2007 so I am happy to say clients have not seen 50% wiped from fund values like some have seen. The real bloodbath has been in the last few months.

It is looking more and more likely we will see a significant rally in the markets that we are well-positioned for but wary that the secular bear market is very much in place and further massive falls are on the cards. We should gte a decent 2009 out of it.

Alternative investments are flourishing wioth Tulip trend, Man AHL Diversified up more than 30% this year and IQS positive almost 60% since August 1st.

For our part we have introduced a managed account concept which day-trades the Dow 30 by using Elliott Wave, Dow Theory and Exchange Traded Funds as investment medium. Check out an example of the Daily Dow Letter here

 

 

offshore funds ideas for 2007

Friday, February 2nd, 2007

portfolio construction – part deux

windows and doors, gold taps and plasma tv’s

Last month, predictions for 2007 plus the general idea of portfolio construction was the topic and in subsequent newsletters and mailings I intend to cover each of my preferred “foundations and roof” funds.
Just as a reminder - It is my belief that an investment portfolio is a bit like a house. Specifically, when you build a house you do not put the roof on first, you start with the foundations and the walls and you try to make those as solid as possible before you go on and add luxuries like roofing, doors, windows and plasma TV’s.
This month, since it is still the start of the year I thought we should look at some of the areas identified in the January newsletter that we would consider as being significant growth areas for 2007 before it is too late.
All the following can be accessed through your portfolio bond (PPB) or our new online nominee service.
The following is in part made possible by input from The Sovereign Society, Hugh Hendry of Eclectica, Forsyth Partners, Scott Campbell at MitonOptimal, and Castlestone Management
As always, if you want to invest in any of the following funds or ETF’s, let me know. An ETF, by the way is an exchange traded fund which is similar to a collective investment fund except that it trades at net asset value (NAV)- with no initial charge – on a stock exchange and can be bought and sold in the same way as any listed security.
Japanese Small Cap Stocks
Japan still remains a bargain and it has some of the world’s most dynamic smaller companies trading at a big discount following a poor 2006.
As measured by the Tokyo second section index, Japanese smaller companies include over 500 domestic issues. Since January 2006, the index has plunged 23% in Yen terms and 22% in US Dollars. Coupled with the fact that Yen could be the stronger currency in Dollar/Yen for 2007, this could be the year for this market.
Buy the ETF – Street Tracks Russell/Nomura Small-Cap Japan up to $56.25, (currently at $52.27)
Buy the fund – JP Morgan JF Small Cap Class A Fund
Gold, Silver
I first told you to buy Gold at $420, today it is $645. Honestly?, I finally followed my own advice and bought at $620. But will it go higher from here?
Experts predict the previous all time high for Gold of $850 to be exceeded in 2007. The trend for Gold’s continued rise remains in place. Typically these moves are in a 13 to 15 year cycle, and we are now only in the sixth year of the cycle.
Silver has outperformed the other three precious metals and should continue to do so in 2007, experts predict it heading for $20 per ounce.
Palladium and Platinum; the latter is probably going to have the least gains of the four but Palladium is significantly undervalued.
Buy the ETF – Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities, Lyxor Precious Metals  - and iShares Silver Trust
Buy the fund – Aliquot Gold Bullion and Aliquot Precious Metals
Timber
Combination of clean-green and soft commodity underperformance make this sector attractive but notoriously hard to find any way to buy in through an actual listed or collective investment vehicle.
Plum Creek Timber is an S&P listed real estate investment trust (REIT) with a market cap of US$7 billion. The REIT owns more than 8 million acres and also produces lumber, plywood and medium density fiberboard in 10 downstream manufacturing facilities in the Northwest US.
With a Dividend yield of 4%, a 20% discount to management NAV valuation and a long depressed commodity price this appears to be an excellent opportunity.
Buy the REIT – Plum Creek Timber Company
Asian Emerging Markets
Apart form the obvious India, China, Russia which I have been pushing now for eons via FMG’s fabulous Rising 3 Fund, concentration appears to be focusing on some of the other areas in the region that are perhaps less high profile
The worst performing market in Asia is about to turn the corner in 2007. The best global values now lie in Taiwan with her manufacturing prowess – technology. Windows Vista is finally available to all and is likely to spawn a boom in new PC sales which means chips.
Buy the ETF – iShares MSCI Taiwan Index
European Large Caps Stocks
Expected to outperform and far less volatile than anything above.
Buy the ETF – iShares DJ Euro STOXX 50 or iShares DJ Euro STOXX Growth
Oil
I thought seriously about buying Oil at $42 last week, today it is $45 and Jim Rogers, “Mr. Commodity” says he still sees $100 per barrel after a “correction” - he just does not know when that correction will happen. Hugh Hendry says that although prices have now reached his lower band area as defined by their “mean reverting system” whatever that is, he is still not a buyer because just as prices can enjoy substantial premiums to their mean so prices can overreact to the downside.
Correction coming?
IF you feel the correction coming we have a long list of Reverse Index Certificates from Commerzbank available on most major indices.
As always, if you want to invest in any of the following funds or ETF’s, let me know. An ETF, by the way is an exchange traded fund which is similar to a collective investment fund except that it trades at net asset value (NAV)- with no initial charge – on a stock exchange and can be bought and sold in the same way as any listed security.

offshore funds portfolio construction

Monday, January 29th, 2007

Portolio Construction of offshore funds

A word on portfolio construction. It is my belief that an investment portfolio is a bit like a house. Specifically, when you build a house you do not put the roof on first, you start with the foundations and the walls and you try to make those as solid as possible before you go on and add luxuries like roofing, doors, windows and plasma TV’s.

In an investment portfolio context then, the foundations are your low volatility, steady-eddie returns products and the roofing would be balanced managed funds and then the windows and doors might be long-only equity funds, perhaps even single country stuff and then the plasma TV and gold-plated bathroom fittings are your direct equity and derivative investments. I think that makes my point without being too specific and boring.

Back to the real world then as in my experience I have found that it is generally only the wealthy amongst us who feel that there is value in wealth preservation techniques such as placing the majority of your investment assets in safer, plodding type investments and only investing in the higher risk areas (if at all) for a very small percentage of the portfolio.

True to say that what actually happens is that investors who perceive themselves as not having sufficient capital will always take the higher risk route because they feel that is the only way to get where they want to be. Fine if you are 25 but a recipe for disaster if you are 40 plus and let’s face it, how many 25 year olds do you know that even consider investing for the future?

For investors building capital by investing in regular savings plans these rules are applied quite differently but I think most of those that have these through me already understand that.

 

Model Portfolio - these are my personal picks but there will be other funds within the same asset classes also applicable. 

Foundations and Roof

  • Assured Fund
  • Absolute Return Fund
  • Defined Returns Fund
  • GAA ‘Q’ Fund
  • Glanmore Property
  • Lakeshore I, II and III
  • Miton Global
  • Miton Extra Income
  • Platinum Turnberry

Windows and Doors

  • Aberdeen India
  • AHL Currency
  • Aliquot Commodity Fund
  • Aliquot Gold Bullion/Aliquot Precious Metals
  • Atlantis China Fortune
  • Castlestone Protective Equity - Emerging Markets
  • China Everbright Dragon Fund
  • Eclectica
  • FMG Rising 3
  • Forsyth Global Commodity
  • HSBC BRIC Markets equity
  • HSBC China
  • HSBC Japanese Equity
  • India Advantage Fund
  • Man AHL Diversified
  • Platinum Global Dividend

Plasma TV, Gold-plated taps

  • CFL
  • IQS
  • FMG MIddle East and North Africa

2007 Predictions for Offshore Funds

Friday, January 5th, 2007

Investment Predictions for 2007

That is a brave title, don’t you think?

I have spent a lot of time over the last few weeks reading newsletters, watching Bloomberg and CNBC and listening to fund managers trying to give us the hot picks for 2007. Interesting stuff.

Portolio Construction

Before we get into that though a word on portfolio construction. It is my belief that an investment portfolio is a bit like a house. Specifically, when you build a house you do not put the roof on first, you start with the foundations and the walls and you try to make those as solid as possible before you go on and add luxuries like roofing, doors, windows and plasma TV’s.

In an investment portfolio context then, the foundations are your low volatility, steady-eddie returns products and the roofing would be balanced managed funds and then the windows and doors might be long-only equity funds, perhaps even single country stuff and then the plasma TV and gold-plated bathroom fittings are your direct equity and derivative investments. I think that makes my point without being too specific and boring.

Back to the real world then as in my experience I have found that it is generally only the wealthy amongst us who feel that there is value in wealth preservation techniques such as placing the majority of your investment assets in safer, plodding type investments and only investing in the higher risk areas (if at all) for a very small percentage of the portfolio.

True to say that what actually happens is that investors who perceive themselves as not having sufficient capital will always take the higher risk route because they feel that is the only way to get where they want to be. Fine if you are 25 but a recipe for disaster if you are 40 plus and let’s face it, how many 25 year olds do you know that even consider investing for the future?

At the end of this, then I will give a a simple standard portfolio construction of my own.

For investors building capital by investing in regular savings plans these rules are applied quite differently but I think most of those that have these through me already understand that.

Consensus View for 2007

2006, let’s start there. The first half of the year, particularly May and June were not bright and did not bode well but in the second half the big picture turned very positive and we ended up the year with the FTSE up 11% or so and Sterling gaining 14% on the Dollar. The Dow hit 12,000 and rose every month from July 2006 ending up almost 16%. The MSCI World Index was up 1over 17% and emerging markets up around 26% with the leaders being Brazil, Russia, India and China with the latter up a staggering 46%. Eastern Europe continues to defy being up over 40% again

Signs are there for another correction early on in 2007 but generally the bulls are out in droves claiming that rises across the board are inevitable and that the Fed is not going to change rates either way until at least the second half of 2007, some reckon not at all for the whole year.

Dollar weakness is generally expected to continue so investing in dollar denominated funds which in turn invest in non-US Dollar assets should continue to be a good move for investors.

The biggest bear I know of is still quite bullish on emerging markets, particularly Chiona and Lang Yiu of Atlantis was on CNBC yesterday giving a very convincing argument for continued investment in China related securities through the HK markets but then she would say that, would’nt she since her fund invests in that market.

So, where are we going to invest for growth in 2007? Bear in mind that as part of a balanced portfolio, the basic “foundations and roof” components do not really ever change that much although the percentage allocations and actual products used will vary depending on age, currency and a number of other factors. The following are your “non-essential accessories” but where we look for the growth.

  • Japan, particularly Japanese Small Caps
  • Asian Emerging Markets particularly China and India
  • Gold and Silver - also Palladium
  • European equities, particularly large caps
  • Japanese Yen, Pound Sterling, Euro and Aussie Dollar

Also expect market volatility so at long last those hedge funds and CTA’s might actually start producing results.

Model Portfolio - these are my personal picks but there will be other funds within the same asset classes also applicable.

Foundations and Roof

  • Assured Fund
  • Absolute Return Fund
  • Defined Returns Fund
  • GAA ‘Q’ Fund
  • Glanmore Property
  • Lakeshore I, II and III
  • Miton Global
  • Miton Extra Income
  • Platinum Turnberry

Windows and Doors

  • Aberdeen India
  • AHL Currency
  • Aliquot Commodity Fund
  • Aliquot Gold Bullion/Aliquot Precious Metals
  • Atlantis China Fortune
  • Castlestone Protective Equity - Emerging Markets
  • China Everbright Dragon Fund
  • Eclectica
  • FMG Rising 3
  • Forsyth Global Commodity
  • HSBC BRIC Markets equity
  • HSBC China
  • HSBC Japanese Equity
  • India Advantage Fund
  • Man AHL Diversified
  • Platinum Global Dividend

Plasma TV, Gold-plated taps

  • CFL
  • IQS
  • FMG MIddle East and North Africa

Consumer Protection - Not all its’ cracked up to be

Friday, November 10th, 2006

I specifically choose to opt out of the regulated environments cropping up all over the world as I have worked in two of them, namely the UK and Hong Kong and found that they spend most of their time in an attempt to restrict the products that I was able to offer my mostly experienced investor clients whilst at the same time allowing the real rogues in the offshore investment business to roam around shafting clients with immunity on the basis of the fact that they only rip people off on “approved” products. Products that the regulators go to great pains to make clear they do not endorse but whom they charge enormous amounts of money for the privelege of being authorised for sale to their masses.

Structure for Holding Offshore Investments

Thursday, October 5th, 2006

The word ’structure’ reminds me of my school English teacher. I cannot recall his last name but it was alleged that the initials for his given names ‘J T’ stood for John Thomas and he was therefore saddled with the knickname of Dobber.

Anyway, I digress. Structure, for our purposes right here and now refer to the sometimes complex, often expensive and generally unnecessary habit of placing ones offshore investments in a “wrapper” in the guise of simplifying admin.

There are genuine reasons why one might want to use such an arrangement and I myself use a combination of an offshore company linked to the nominee service  of an FSA regulated stock broker in London through whom I can buy my offshore funds. My reason for doing this is succession planning; making the passing of whatever assets I leave easier to get at for those that I want to leave them to. Others have different reasons such as asset protection, tax mitigation, simplification of one’s affairs etc. Mine is not to reason why but I do think that mine is to reason how and who is most cost effective.

Generally;

1. If you are a short term investor and you are just trying to build some capital short term, then you probably do not need any sort of offshore structure at all.

2. If you invest in joint names with someone you trust you almost certainly do not need any sort of offshore structure at all.

Buying direct, using this web site and owning in your own name is the cheapest way to do it, of that there is no doubt

The one big product that everyone knocks is the offshore insurance company portfolio bond and yes, it is horribly expensive but this is really only because the people that sell it demand it to be so. Realistically most offshore insurance companies actually charge only 1.5% in establishment charges plus GBP95 per quarter in administration charges and then GBP21 per transaction. That is not expensive but that is on a NIL commission basis. Typically, an IFA will add 7% to that in commissions.

I take 1.25% on these so you are still only paying 2.75% in establishment. Furthermore, if you plan to live in the UK at any point, no matter what your nationality there are tax advantages.

Most nominee services charge a transaction fee, custodian fee, annual management, dormant account etc., etc.,etc. The one I use charges only a transaction fee. That make life easier and you can sit in cash for as long as you want. No charge for that.

Many people get away with just a BVI Company set up which costs as little as US$1,035 to set up and then US$600 per year. Downside is the mountain of due diligence you have to provide when buying funds which is why I use the nominee service as then you only do the DD once.

There are a coiple of new variations on the theme that are allegedly cheaper alternatives to the traditional portfolio bond and supposedly a lot cheaper AND, most importantly with online dealing. Hmmmm. I decided to take a look.

Actually, there is no on-line dealing just something made to look remarkably like it but the system still depends on your financial advisor manually placing the deal. There are on-line valuations, for whatever that is worth.

From a charges point of view they are certainly marketed to look cheaper but are they really? What I did was ignore discounts at the fund manager level because we can all get those, and I also compared each product on a NIL initial commission basis to level the playing field. What did I get?

I can’t name names but let’s call them new boy number one and new boy number two, BVI company, nominee account, offshore trust company and PPB for reference. I also assumed that the entire portfolio is reinvested once a year which is excessive but you have to assume something.

On an investment of GBP20,000, Nominee account is cheapest and PPB is most expensive. The range is from GBP150 to GBP932 year one and from GBP150 to GBP632 annually thereafter. Newboys number 1 and 2 come in 4th and 5th close behind the PPB.

Take the investmnent up to only GBP50,000 and PPB jumps up above both the new boys and the cheapest is still Nominee. The range is from GBP375 to GBP1,750 year one and from GBP375 to GBP950 annually thereafter. Interestingly though the annual figures change the order with newboys 1&2 changing places in expensiveness stakes.

I did these numbers again for 100,000, 200,000 and 1 million in Sterling and USD. The upshot is that BVI takes over as cheap charlie from 100k invested but nominee stays at number 2 throughout. On the annual fees PPB is second only to BVI.

It is no coincidence that the combination of BVI and nominee service charging only a transaction fee per deal is what I use to hold offshore funds. It is the cheapest way to do it!

The real killer is not actually the year one establishment costs even though at the top end of my range, newboys 1 and 2 were DOUBLE the next most expensive.

It is the annual fees that are going to kill you. BVI company is going to cost you USD600 per year. In return for internet valuations and simplified admin, newboys 1 and 2 are taking about 35 times the cost of a PPB on 1 million in annual charges.